This Focused Performance Weblog started life as a "business management blog" containing links and commentary related primarily to organizational effectiveness with a "Theory of Constraints" perspective, but is in the process of evolving towards primary content on interactive and mobile marketing. Think of it as about Focusing marketing messages for enhanced Performance. If you are on an archive page, current postings are found here.
"What if you knew your company's business forecasts would always be wrong? That no matter how well you and your business and technology colleagues planned, you could never be certain about a financial forecast?...
"To begin with, there's a common misconception that business projections based on average assumptions are, on average, correct. I refer to this phenomenon as the flaw of averages, and it gums up well-intentioned plans with alarming regularity in all lines of work."
"Flaw of averages" -- I like it. Too many forecasts rely on such flaws when what needs to be projected and protected is not the ability to deal with elusive, but boring averages, but with the peaks and spikes that make things interesting. That's why I'm attracted to the robust logistical solutions that come from a TOC approach.
posted by Frank - Permanent Link -