This Focused Performance Weblog is a "business management blog" containing links and commentary related primarily to organizational effectiveness with a "Theory of Constraints" perspective. TOC is noted for its applications in Project Management and Multi-Project Management (Critical Chain) and Operations Management (Drum-Buffer-Rope), as well as in Marketing, Strategic Planning and Change Management (TOC Thinking Processes). If you are on an archive page, current postings are found here.
Tuesday, January 11, 2005
Shooting from the Hip (Only to Hit Your Foot) -- Forecasts, prognostications, guesses, SWAGs, and promises; which of these words doesn't belong with the others?
How often have you made a quick-and-dirty assessment of a situation "...unencumbered by the thought process" as Click and Clack, the Tappet Brothers might say, only to have your response come back to bite you in the hind parts?
We all like to look smart, be perceived as team players, and provide a can-do response to requests from our bosses and customers. Too often, this leads to being put in a situation where a half-baked assessment is taken as a commitment. In the experience-building phase (essentially spanning the the 32 years) of my 32-year career, it took a bit of learning before I realized that in these cases, they always remember the "could happen" assessment, but never remember the ifs, the prerequisites, and the concerns expressed along with that hip shot response.
We usually feel pressured to provide such potentially dangerous information because we assume that the information is needed right then and there. Unless we're talking about an immediate life-and-death situation, there is no situation that will not benefit from a bit of forethought about obstacles and reservations. And the more critical the decision, the more forethought the situation deserves.
You've probably got good intuition on the subject -- they probably wouldn't have asked you if you didn't -- but give that intuition some backup from the other side of the brain.
Sooner or later, someone will once again ask you if or when something can be done, or how much of something could be expected. Allow me to suggest a universal answer for such a situation.
"Let me get back to you on that."
But be sure you have an easy to use process and a plan for getting back quickly with a response that you can live with.
In On Project Estimates... Briefly is found a similar perspective on the flip side of the topic from Rands in Repose...the topic of the fear of coming out with that shot from the hip answer...
SHE IS SAYING: "Roughly tell me how long it'll take to do this as quickly as possible."
YOU ARE HEARING: "Commit to a schedule regarding implementing this specific feature."
Rands goes on to suggest a reasonable strategy for taking a little time to develop a useful estimate. I agree it's better than a hip-shot response, but I'll also two more cents and suggest that if request calls for a quantitative response (like a time estimate), it should be documented in terms of a range of time, rather than a single number. This is far more honest that a sand-bagged big number or a land-mine-filled small one.
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