Friday, February 03, 2006

Probabilistic Project Schedules -- AKA real-world schedules.

Glen Alleman has got a great series of posts going on Deterministic versus Probabilistic Scheduling, discussing the appropriate use of PERT's basic three-point estimates, more sophisticated risk profiles, and schedule risk analysis.

It's an excellent set of posts, covering topics not unlike those I did in a series a couple years ago from a critical chain perspective, where I talked about making project promises using range estimates and buffered schedules, and keeping those promises via risk analysis using buffer management.

I think we're talking about the same things, just using different tools to accomplish similar objectives in a shared view of the reality of uncertainty inherent in projects.

(By the way, when I look in my Bloglines aggregator, the difference in subscription number that I've got (380) compared to Glen (27) is totally disproportionate to the recent value of our respective content. If you're reading my blog for project management "insight" in Bloglines, or any feed reader, I strongly recommend you go grab Glen's feed as well. Now.)

Labels: Critical Chain

posted by Frank - Permanent Link - |

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